Sunday, March 29, 2020

Same World - Same Suffering

“There are decades where nothing happens;and there are weeks where decades happen.”

This is a few weeks where much has happened.

I see from the Johns Hopkins site that the US has a solid lead on the rest of the world on covid cases.  China seems to be quite level and under control.  I am wondering if that might be the compliance of people.  In North America, people tend to ignore government authority more.

I am in business so I am closely attuned to the economy.  This is hurting trade.  There are some winners (like Iotum Callbridge, grocery stores (people are eating at home more), Danby freezers, vitamins and supplements, masks etc.).  But overall, the economy has dropped.  The real question is where this comes out and how fast do we recover.

As a business person, I always try to predict the future.  For ShipperBee, the future is bright.  I see nothing but more ecommerce and delivery. 

For Danby, I see less wine coolers and bar fridges short term (people feel poor and have less $).  Less compact fridges in hotels (although now is a good time to renovate so it may hold up).  Work at home though will drive people to buy second fridges.  Less Caribbean vacations and more entertaining at home might cause people to buy more wine coolers.  Freezer sales have increased permanently - people will think more "be prepared".  Danby is also well suited for small space living so with less money, people are more likely to live in smaller places.

What is good about this pandemic:

1 - It is all of humankind against a common foe.  This feels better than people killing people.

2 - This may be just the kick the environment needs to right itself. 

3 - I think this period of social distancing is helping people clarify who they are.  My hope is it will make it s kinder, gentler world.

4 - There will be some infrastructure savings.  Less new roads will be needed as more people work from home.  (unfortunately, those savings will not offset the massive government costs to fight covid)

Danby is hard at work designing ventilators with the hope of producing them soon.  As we started the project, we found we lacked the full capability to make them so we have formed a very strong consortium.  Lots of time.  Lots of challenge.  More on this later.

And some wisdom from 1848:

“What has so often excited wonder, is the great rapidity with which countries recover from a state of devastation, the disappearance in a short time, of all traces of mischief done by earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, and the ravages of war. An enemy lays waste a country by fire and sword, and destroys or carries away nearly all the moveable wealth existing in it: all the inhabitants are ruined, and yet in a few years after, everything is much as it was before.”

John Stuart Mill, Principles of Political Economy, 1848


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